Haters be damned. AppLovin continues to crush it, reporting $1.158 billion in revenue for Q1—up from $678.3 million in Q1 2024. That’s a jaw-dropping 71% year-over-year increase. Yeah, that’s pretttttyyyy good.
The stock jumped 15% after earnings. AppLovin did, however, offer slightly more muted guidance for Q2: $1.2 to $1.22 billion, compared to analyst expectations of $1.38 billion, per CNBC.
Tied to the earnings, CEO Adam Foroughi published a blog post explaining the company’s rationale for seeking to acquire TikTok—an idea that initially seemed like a lark, but, according to Foroughi, is anything but.
The blog post, titled “Why pursue TikTok? A vision for economic expansion,” includes this key paragraph:
“The economic loss is staggering. There have been reports that TikTok did around $20 billion in ad revenue outside China in 2024. If powered by cutting-edge technology like our Axon AI, which quadrupled advertiser spend on our platform in just two years, we believe that it could reach $80 billion. Based on our experience, advertisers see over a 2x revenue return on spend. That’s $60 billion in lost ad revenue, translating to $120 billion in missed revenue for businesses. Think about the jobs that could have been created. TikTok excels at AI—their recommendation algorithm is world-class and one of the first massively scaled implementations based on modern understandings of neural networks. Yet, data and security concerns have hamstrung their advertising potential. Without a change in control, they may never unlock this value. That’s where we come in.”
So, will it happen? We’ll see. Foroughi notes that outside of the blog, AppLovin doesn’t plan to answer any questions about the proposal until there’s something more concrete to share. (The post, it seems, was primarily intended to support analyst and investor questions.)
Why This Matters:
First, on earnings: AppLovin has taken a beating over the past six months (reputationally, not necessarily financially), plagued by speculation and allegations, but nothing concrete. Most of the criticism, in our view, stems from a lack of understanding around how the company operates technologically and what its secret sauce really is. AppLovin essentially emerged from nowhere for much of the market—even this earnings report got minimal coverage—and that knowledge gap bred skepticism. But it’s hard to stay skeptical when the results are what they are.
Second, on TikTok: Imagine if AppLovin owned something akin to Facebook or YouTube. That’s what it would have with TikTok. As Foroughi puts it in the blog post: “In mobile gaming, we’re the leading advertising platform, trusted by all major clients. Outside gaming, we’re growing rapidly yet barely scratching the surface, with less than 0.1% penetration among potential advertisers.”
Buying TikTok would help change that.
Experts React:
The go-to expert on AppLovin is Eric Seufert, who has consistently understood the company’s value. Here’s what he had to say about the earnings:
Our Take:
You can hate AppLovin, of course. But do so at your own peril. The results speak for themselves, no? Of course, scrutiny will continue — that’s the job when you’re on top. But, clearly, the company and its leadership is doing something right.
