Forrester has released its 2026 B2C marketing predictions — and one of them is a bit gloomy for the ad industry. According to the research firm, “Advertisers will cut display ad budgets by 30% as consumers leave the open web.”
The force driving that exodus? AI.
“Despite consumers’ skepticism about genAI, they will continue to turn to AI-generated summaries and chat interfaces designed to return answers,” the report reads. “This will shrink addressable audiences on the open web, and click-through rates will decline.” (We like that they’ve connected the drop in audience to being a performance issue, too, because of course it is.)
Forrester adds that the 30% of ad dollars leaving the open web will flow instead to “more entertainment-driven content platforms, such as connected TV, streaming audio, and social video.” In other words, more closed ecosystems and walled gardens, where measurement, unfortunately, can be a bit trickier.
See Forrester’s full predictions guide here.
Why This Matters:
The shift away from the open web has been building all year as AI continues to reshape how people discover and consume information. According to a recent study by MediaLink/LoopMe, 45% of advertisers are already redirecting budgets toward mobile in-app experiences, as a result.
Ultimately, the open web is being squeezed — first by walled gardens, like Meta and TikTok, now by AI-driven environments where ads may not appear at all, or at least not at scale.
Experts React:
Sharyn Leaver, chief research officer at Forrester, says advertisers must adapt by focusing on customer value:
“Measures such as enhancing personalization that prioritizes relevance and value and integrating AI through a customer-centric lens will be table stakes for brands to earn their customers’ loyalty.”
Our Take:
Better personalization may help, but it’s unlikely to reverse the flow of dollars leaving the open web. To compete, the open web will need to deliver what walled gardens already promise: proven quality, performance, and some curated supply/premium inventory. That’s the sweet spot — and the only real path to sustained advertiser confidence.
