A few days ago, closing arguments officially wrapped in the Google–DOJ adtech antitrust trial, and adtech expert/author Ari Paparo has a prediction: “I think Google’s going to get their way and there won’t be a spin out,” he writes in his latest for Marketecture.
Ari, of course, has been following the trial closely. Heading into the final day, he says he actually thought it was a coin flip on whether Judge Brinkema would order an AdX spin-out or settle for behavioral remedies. But after watching closing arguments — and weighing the complexity of forcing a structural separation — he now expects the judge to take the behavioral route.
One key factor: behavioral remedies can be implemented faster, which obviously matters, even if Google pushes back or appeals, which is expected.
Why This Matters:
It’s certainly a blow for the “spin-out crowd.” But strong behavioral remedies would still likely be a major win, even without the dramatic “break it up” outcome some hoped for. These rules would reshape how AdX and GAM/DFP interoperate with rivals, and give the judge room to mix and match some levers without ordering a full-on divestiture.
Google has also broadened its proposed remedies, which helps. Earlier drafts focused on modest technical tweaks, but the updated version goes further. For example, it now explicitly offers direct, real-time AdX bid access to rival publisher ad servers and treats Prebid/header bidding as a core integration rather than a bolt-on. That moves Google much closer to the DOJ’s goal of letting publishers send inventory to non‑Google exchanges and ad servers without sacrificing access to Google demand.
Experts React:
Read Ari’s full Marketecture piece! Here’s the opening paragraph:
I was back in Northern Virginia today listening to the closing arguments in Google’s ad tech antitrust remedies trial. As I wrote after the conclusion of the 11-day evidentiary hearings, I went into today thinking it was a coin flip on whether Judge Brinkema would order an AdX spin-out or settle for behavioral remedies. After today I think Google’s going to get their way and there won’t be a spin out.
Our Take:
If Ari is right, this is still a win. Sure, some will be disappointed if the judge stops short of structural change. But step back: whatever the ruling, the remedies decision will reshape the adtech landscape — and strong behavioral remedies could better balance the market in real ways.
Anyway, for anyone feeling let down: a wise man (we believe his name is Vin Diesel) once said, “It doesn’t matter if you win by an inch or a mile. Winning is winning.” Take the win.
