Crite-noooooo.
Criteo reported Q1 earnings this morning and saw its stock sink over 20% after lowering its full-year 2026 outlook. The company now expects a slight decline in core revenue growth after forecasting stronger performance previously.
Criteo blamed the revision on softer economic conditions, weaker retail and travel spending, and reduced budgets from certain large U.S. advertising clients as the main reasons for the revised guidance. (The old: “It’s not us, it’s the market.”)
Why This Matters:
Criteo, to some degree, should be a bellwether for commerce media as the company has largely gone all in on it. So, if Criteo is seeing weaker retail and travel spending — and broader macroeconomic pressure slowing the dollars flowing through its platform — that could be a concerning signal for the wider market.
Also notable: AI and agentic bets are clearly long-term investments for Criteo, but they aren’t really contributing to revenue yet. “Our guidance does not assume any material revenue contribution from agentic AI initiatives given their early stage, despite strong early traction,” said CFO Sarah Glickman. This is not necessarily a Criteo-specific issue or even an adtech issue broadly. Right now, the AI narrative across the industry is moving faster than the actual revenue curve.
Still, CEO Michael Komasinski made clear that AI is central to the company’s future, describing Criteo’s focus as “building Criteo into the leading commerce intelligence and AI decisioning platform.”
Experts React:
One of the more interesting comments from the call centered on AI-driven traffic quality and conversion performance. CEO Komasinski said:
“Traffic from AI platforms like ChatGPT converts at approximately one and a half times the rate of other referral channels, driving incremental, high-quality demand to retailer and brand destinations.”
Our Take:
For multiple quarters now, Criteo has pointed to softer customer spending or pressure dragging down their performance. While the company is clearly making some smart, aggressive bets in promising areas like retail/commerce media, conversational AI, and agentic, those investments still don’t appear to be translating into meaningful near-term growth.
