It’s finally over… sort of.
The US versus Google adtech antitrust trial has officially concluded. The DOJ has accused Google of monopolistic practices in adtech, while Google argues that it operates appropriately in an increasingly competitive industry and provides benefits to advertisers and publishers of all sizes. Closing arguments are scheduled for November 25, with a ruling expected by the end of the year.
With the trial wrapping, Terry Kawaja, CEO and founder of adtech and media investment firm LUMA Partners, shared his thoughts via a YouTube video posted today on X. In the video, Kawaja calls the Google case “the most consequential in the history of the industry.”
Why This Matters:
Kawaja has over 20 years of experience in media and adtech and has advised on more than $300 billion in transactions, including some of the most pivotal deals in the media and tech industries—several of which helped shape Google’s adtech business into what it is today.
With that in mind, according to Kawaja, everyone — including Google — wins from a Google adtech breakup. He believes spinning out the company’s adtech business would benefit Google, as “guilty is good.”
Kawaja explains, “This would be a positive for Google as it rids them of their business unit with the slowest growth, the lowest margins, and the biggest source of government headaches. And it would allow them to focus on their much larger, more strategic owned and operated businesses, like search, YouTube, and cloud, among others.”
He also highlights how the adtech ecosystem and advertisers could benefit. “The spin-off would oxygenate the market with great benefits to competitors who found it difficult to compete with Google,” says Kawaja. “First, we would have greater competition. For example, any DSP could buy YouTube inventory, not just DV360.” He adds, “Advertisers would win as competition would translate to better ROI for their spend, and publishers would win for the same reason.”
Experts React:
Jason Kint of Digital Content Next, a trade association for publishers, has a different perspective. Google “is screwed,” Kint says. “I don’t know what it does to the shareholder value, but I can tell you the evidence in the search trial was damning, and the evidence in the adtech trial (that didn’t get purged) is worse.”
Our Take:
While much of the business and tech media, who don’t regularly cover Google from an adtech perspective, seem to relish the company’s challenges with this case, Kawaja’s commentary suggests Google won’t be a loser, even if the verdict doesn’t go its way. This is a “clean sweep” for every constituency, including Google, he says.
See Kawaja’s full video here:
