Weirdly, just as Google grapples with an antitrust shakeup over its search dominance, it’s now confronted with its most serious competition yet.
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal published an article titled “Google’s Grip on Search Slips as TikTok and AI Startup Mount Challenge.” The piece highlights three key competitors: TikTok, which recently launched new search features for advertisers; Perplexity, which is set to debut ads in its AI-powered search results this month; and Amazon, which has been steadily gaining ground in product search for years.
The most striking takeaway from the article, however, is new data from EMARKETER projecting that Google’s share of the US search ad market will drop below 50% next year — for the first time in about a decade. See the chart below:
That search throne is now a hot seat, it seems.
Why This Matters:
Of course it matters! More competition in search is long overdue, and Google’s projected loss of dominance in the market is a seismic shift for digital advertising.
More competition can lead to greater innovation, better pricing, increased transparency, and a wider range of options for advertisers. For the adtech ecosystem, a less dominant Google could mean a more equitable distribution of ad revenue. Which means more cool yachts at Cannes Lions, which we are all in favor of.
Experts React:
Gregory Kennedy, VP of Marketing at predictive intelligence company Alembic, and founder of marketing agency BrandZen, had an interesting take on this news, saying Google has prepared for this outcome.
“I don’t find this all that surprising,” he tweeted. “Google has been preparing for this for years by investing in Google Cloud, diversifying away from Search with YouTube, and, of course, investing in Waymo, a subsidiary of theirs. I think they have all of their bases covered.”
Our Take:
This is… a tough one. Google is facing a complicated challenge on search. This isn’t a matter of a single competitor offering a like-for-like alternative. Instead, multiple players are chipping away at Google’s market from different angles, each with unique strengths.
Perplexity, for instance, is forcing Google to rethink the very concept of search. While Gemini is a strong response, Google faces the dual challenge of defending its existing product while developing a new one.
Amazon, on the other hand, is directly challenging Google in product search. Although Google has tried to counter by integrating more shopping into its SERP, let’s be real — Amazon is the go-to for ecommerce. Combined with their growing retail media business, this feels like a pretty uphill battle for Google.
Meanwhile, TikTok is still in the “figuring it out” search phase, but is quickly becoming a go-to platform for business searches and social discovery, especially with Gen Z. Its competition with YouTube also complicates things.
The real challenge for Google is that it must fight on all these fronts simultaneously. Yes, it has massive resources and a dominant market position, but the company is facing the classic innovator’s dilemma: how to evolve quickly without abandoning a core business that still generates a lot of revenue.
Maybe Google can navigate this moment and come out on top. Or maybe we’re witnessing the rise of a more fragmented, specialized search ecosystem. Either way, search has quickly become the most interesting space in all of adtech and change feels refreshing.
